Gross Domestic Product, Country Data and Country Group Aggregates, third quarter 2024
(Contributors: Richard James Wild, Dinh Nguyen-Xuan and Abdulrahman Gweder)

World GDP growth (real, seasonally adjusted) accelerated to 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in 2024Q3, up from 0.6 percent in 2024Q2. On an annualized basis, Q3 growth stood at 3.1 percent, a shade lower than the January WEO 2024 world growth estimate of 3.2 percent. However, overall growth masks mixed performances across the major economies. Asia remained the primary driver despite slowdowns in China and Japan, with ongoing robust expansion in India and Indonesia. In the Americas, growth accelerated for the third straight quarter due to steady gains in the United States and Brazil, and upticks in Mexico and Argentina. Strong growth in Africa allowed it to provide an equal contribution to World growth as Europe despite smaller economic weight. In the latter, performance remained subdued due to weakness in Germany, the UK, and Italy. 
 
By income group, quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in the Emerging Market and Developing Economies increased slightly to 0.9 percent in 2024Q3, up from 0.7 percent in 2024Q2. This group accounted for the majority of World GDP growth (0.6 percentage point). The Advanced Economies grew by 0.5 percent in 2024Q3, contributing 0.2 percentage point to overall growth. 

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the World GDP deflator, grew by 1.8 percent in 2024Q3, similar to the 1.7 percent increase in the previous quarter (revised up from 1.6 percent). Price increases in the Americas (3.2 percent) and Asia (1.2 percent) contributed 1.4 percentage points to World price growth

 

Source: IMF Statistics Department using IFS and other official country data. 
¹Emerging Market and Developing 
²Based on 19 country members; excludes European Union and African Union blocs

Notes: World and regional quarterly GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted and presented in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Volume estimates use a current-period chain-weighting methodology as used to generate annual world GDP estimates the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) publication. Quarterly series are benchmarked to the latest WEO annual series (October 2024) up to the end of the last complete calendar year (2023) and are unconstrained in subsequent quarters.

 

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accelerate in 2023, Highlighting Increasing Challenges for Climate Commitments

 

National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories and Implied National Mitigation (Nationally Determined Contributions) Targets, Country Data and Country Group Aggregates, 2030
(Contributors: Achille Pegoue and Abdulrahman Gweder)

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2023, as compiled using national GHG inventories, are estimated at 51.9 gigatons of CO2 equivalent, which is about 43 percent higher than the level of emissions in 2030 that would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The increase reinforces the need for countries to step up their ambition and to implement stronger climate action. New Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are due for submission by February 2025.  To meet the temperature targets, each region needs to do more. Substantial efforts (relative to current policies) will be required to meet the NDCs. But the NDCs themselves are not sufficient to put the world on the 1.5°C path. Thus, the world is facing both an ambition gap and an implementation gap.

Source: IMF Statistics and Fiscal Affairs Departments. 
Notes: ¹Emissions in Millions of metric tons of CO2 equivalent. 
            ²World aggregates exclude economies without NDC targets.

The 1.7 percent increase in global GHG emissions in 2023 continued the upward trend observed since the decline in 2020 due to the pandemic. The energy sector is the primary contributor to this increase, accounting for 1.6 percentage points, highlighting the importance for economies to transition to clean energy sources. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) continued to play a role in reducing emissions. Among the regions, emissions in Asia are still on the rise, while those in Europe showed a steady downward trend since 2018. Emissions in Africa, the Americas, and Oceania have been broadly stable in the last few years.

Source: IMF CID Dataset, UNFCCC, EDGAR, and FAOSTAT.
Note: ¹Units: Millions of metric tons of CO2 equivalent.
          ²LULUCF: Land use, land use change, and forestry. 

Source: IMF CID Dataset, UNFCCC, EDGAR, and FAOSTAT.
Note: ¹LULUCF: Land use, land use change, and forestry. 

Notes: World, Regional and Other Aggregates of GHG emissions, sourced from inventories, are available from 1990 to 2023. They combine national inventories submitted by Annex I economies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 1990 to 2021 and GHG estimates prepared by EDGAR from 1990 to 2023. National inventories are trended forward to 2023 using EDGAR estimates. GHG emissions in LULUCF sector for non-Annex I economies are estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department translates the NDC pledges into their implied levels for 2030, while also providing projections based on Business as Usual (BAU) estimates. NDCs and BAUs have not been estimated for 38 out of 211 economies due to lack of availability of sufficient information. These economies account for less than 0.5% of the emissions as of 2023. The time series of World GHG emissions inventories released in February 2024 is revised down by 2.6 percent due to revisions of emission factors, and technologies and abatement measures in EDGAR estimates. Data on World, Regional and Other Aggregates of GHG emission inventories and NDCs for the year 2024 are tentatively scheduled to be released on October 30, 2025. 

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OTHER RELEASES

Slowdown in Annual Regional Inflation for Central and South America  Inflation, Country Data and Country Group Aggregates, November 2024 (Contributors: Brian Graf, Ragnhild Nygaard, and Lamya Kejji) Regional annual inflation (the growth rate of consumer prices over a 12-month period) for South America slowed to 98.2 percent in December 2024, down from 132.5 per cent in November 2024 and from the peak of 196.4 percent in April 2024. This trend reflects substantial disinflation in Argentina, where annual inflation fell from 289.4 percent in April 2024 to a still very high 117.8 percent in December 2024. Excluding Argentina, the annual regional inflation in South America remained at 4.6 percent in December 2024, maintaining an unchanged rate over the past three months. For Central America, regional annual inflation has also slowed, dropping to 3.7 per cent in December 2024, the lowest inflation rate since early 2021.  Notes: Regional annual inflation is calculated as a weighted average using officially disseminated indexes and 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) expenditure data.

World Industrial Production Up 0.5 Percent in October 2024   Industrial Production, Country Data and Country Group Aggregates, October 2024 (Contributors: Anthony Silungwe and Arushi Kapoor) World Industrial Production (IP) accelerated to 0.5 percent month-on-month in October from 0.1 percent in September. The acceleration was driven by strong growth in both Advanced Economies (AEs) and Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), where IP increased 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. Within EMDEs, significant gains were recorded in Middle East and Central Asia (2.2 percent), Sub-Saharan Africa (1.9 percent), Emerging and Developing Asia (0.4 percent), and Emerging and Developing Europe (0.5 percent). Meanwhile, IP in Latin America and the Caribbean declined 0.3 percent in October. On a year-on-year basis, World IP was up 2.3 percent in October, driven by 3.4 percent growth in EMDEs, while IP decreased -0.3 percent in AEs over the same period.   Notes: Regional annual inflation is calculated as a weighted average using officially disseminated indexes and 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) expenditure data.

Trends in Real Effective Exchange Rates for the United States and China Diverge Real Effective Exchange Rates, Country Data, December 2024  (Contributors: Andrew Baer, Emmanuel Manolikakis and Dinh Nguyen-Xuan) In December 2024, the real effective exchange rate (REER) for the United States dollar increased 2.8 percent (1) while the Chinese renminbi declined by 0.9 percent. These developments continued earlier trends; over the last few years, the US dollar has become stronger relative to a basket of other currencies, adjusted for inflation, while the Chinese renminbi has weakened. This could impact trade competitiveness, with US goods becoming more expensive and Chinese goods becoming cheaper.   Notes: An increase in REER implies that exports become more expensive for foreign buyers and imports become cheaper domestically; therefore, an increase indicates a loss in trade competitiveness, other things being equal. December 2024 REERs are now available through the IFS dataset portal. The REER statistics presented in this announcement are based on three-month averages of monthly indices.

Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Country Data, Third Quarter 2024 Balance of Payments and International Investment Position for the third quarter of 2024 were released on January 22, 2025. The IMF tracks the quarterly Balance of Payments and International Investment Position across 190 countries with data starting from 1945.

UPCOMING RELEASES

February 7, 2025	Atmospheric CO₂ Concentrations Global Data, December 2024 The IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard tracks monthly atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
February 14, 2025	International Merchandise Trade Statistics Country Data and Country Group Aggregates, November 2024  The global and regional estimates are derived from a sample of 109 reporting economies, collectively representing 95.2 percent of the total global merchandise trade.

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